Rob Hockedy on why tried and tested is sometimes best
Experience comes at cost. So does a Coachella ticket. But nobody that attends leaves complaining. So who’s your headliner?
What’s happening 9,966 miles away?
When Justin Bieber took the Coachella stage, the crowd wasn't full of people discovering him for the first time. They were there because of what he'd already proven, years of understanding his audience, adapting to different genres, collaborating with different artists and delivering hit new singles when it counted the most. No algorithm, no hype cycle, no debut act was going to replicate that.
Coachella doesn't fill its headline slots with unknowns and hope for the best. Every act on that stage is proven, bankable and trusted to deliver. The best hiring decisions work exactly the same way.
Over the past few years, there's been a quiet but persistent push toward younger, greener, junior hiring. Cheaper salaries, mouldable talent and a focus on enthusiasm over experience.
On paper, it makes sense. In practice, a lot of desks are now feeling the gap.
Because here's what you can't teach quickly: judgement. The kind that comes from having sat across the table during a restructuring; from having watched a project finance deal unravel at financial close; from knowing instinctively when a credit committee is being too optimistic about a borrower's cashflow projections. That kind of judgment takes a cycle…sometimes two, to develop.
And right now, the stakes for getting that judgement right have never been higher.
We are not in a recession. But we are living through something arguably more complex. A global economy at a genuine inflection point. Trade policy and geopolitical instability are now the two most cited risks to global growth, with escalating tensions across the US-China relationship, the ongoing war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East and a rules-based international order under sustained pressure. The energy supply shock following the onset of conflict in the Middle East is already weighing on global growth, while putting new upward pressure on inflation.
For employers, the risk is a team that performs well in a stable, borrower-friendly environment and struggles the moment conditions tighten. Credit markets have been broadly forgiving for two years. That won't last forever. When the cycle turns, you want experienced people who've seen it before and can help you to overcome the challenges.
For candidates, your experience is worth more than the market is currently telling you. The professionals who know how to structure a complex leveraged buyout, who have managed a syndicate through volatility, who have maintained client relationships across multiple rate environments - that knowledge has a long shelf life. Don't let a hiring cycle convince you otherwise.
The best employers are already figuring this out. They're hiring ahead, locking in senior talent before the deal pipeline forces everyone to compete for the same small pool simultaneously. They understand that the person who has done this before isn't a cost - they're insurance. More and more clients are looking for the ‘Senior Banker’, someone with broader sector and product knowledge, that can originate and structure deals (especially in leaner teams), can negotiate and actively cross sell, providing a deeper, more strategic partnering capability with its clients.
Justin Bieber didn't headline Coachella because he was new. He headlined because he'd earned it. The debt markets are full of professionals who've done the same. The question is whether employers are paying attention before someone else does.
Looking for your star headliner?
Contact Rob Hockedy 02 9235 9470 / 0478 699 120 / rhockedy@jmes.com.au
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